Evolution and Implementation of Macroeconometric Modeling: A Roadmap for INP’s Modeling Unit

نوع المستند : المقالة الأصلية

المؤلفون

1 Professor of Economics at Cairo University, currently Seconded to Nile University.

2 Assistant Professor at Cairo University, currently Seconded to American University in Cairo

المستخلص

Macroeconomic modeling is essential for policymaking and economic analysis. This paper examines the role of macroeconomic models in informing policy decisions, with a focus on the Institute of National Planning's (INP) Modeling Unit (MU) in Egypt. Two central questions guide the discussion: which models should the MU prioritize, and what steps are necessary for successful model development? The paper begins by reviewing the evolution of macroeconometric modeling globally, offering insights into the evolution of economic theory, technological advancements, data availability, and methodological approaches that have shaped modeling practices globally. It then delves into Egypt's macroeconomic modeling history, examining past initiatives and drawing lessons for the MU's future endeavors and policy-making efforts. Finally, the paper proposes a roadmap for the MU to develop high-quality models that contribute to Egypt's sustainable economic growth, emphasizing clear objectives, appropriate model selection, long-term strategy, and building trust in research outcome.

الكلمات الرئيسية

المراجع

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